A break from my usual networking musings…
I have never purchased an Apple Watch. I always thought they were too high and needed to be sleeker. Despite my dislikes and historical preference for Garmin watches, the Apple Watch has done ok, to say the least. Does my historical deviation from popular choices guarantee Apple's new Vision Pro will be successful? No, but it is worth noting.
Vision Pro is not the Metaverse
Some people, IMO, make the mistake of suggesting that Vision Pro will have the same tragic end as all the to-date attempts to create a Metaverse. The use cases are a little different than the Metaverse.
Whereas the Metaverse was imagined as a 100% computer-generated world, the Vision Pro seems to have a heavy emphasis on an augmented world, even if VR capable. More importantly, it is a TV without the TV hardware, anywhere you want. High-quality teleconferencing without teleconferencing hardware, anywhere you want it—personal computing without the computing hardware. To me, Vision Pro is a portable entertainment and computing experience anywhere you want it. Something quite different than the Metaverse. If I were the maker of TV or videoconferencing hardware, I would look at this closely.
The Challenges Will Be Real
A Version 1 product. Heavy, expensive, short battery life, tethered and obstructing the real world. By today's technology standards, there may be a few minor miracles in the Vision Pro; however, that does not guarantee consumer success, especially in today's uncertain economic times. These characteristics will certainly inhibit broad uptake in the short term, outside of affluent neighborhoods.
Will Apple’s spatial video give me a headache and nausea? Possibly. Apple claims they have such things figured out. It will be interesting to see.
So Why Am I Optimistic?
My optimism stems from the vision of Vision Pro and an assumption that the technology will continue to evolve and mitigate some of the dislikes above. The vision is good, the experience likely great, and better generations of tech are likely.
Does the Apple halo make any new product launch a guaranteed success? They have a good record, but no.
Does Apple have a mix of software assets, hardware assets, software engineering, hardware engineering, design, integration, production, and marketing capabilities that few others, perhaps none other, have? Yes.
Conclusion
At $3.5K, I will not be one of the first people in line. At that price, I may not even look at it until my next tech refresh cycle. Nonetheless, I expect numerous affluent people to line up, and if the experience is game-changing, word will get out, and we will be at Generation 4 before we know it. I still wonder how creepy it will be for two people to be sitting on the couch watching a movie with these things, essential to my life, and not shown in any of the launch videos.
Vision Pro is clunky, if stylish, beginning for all but the financially well-off. Meaning it does not hit the nail on the head, yet, for broad uptake. That said, I am making a bet that the vision is strong, and that will drive success while Apple iterates until one day we wake up and it is what all of us want.
Of course, speculation is worth what you pay for it. It will be interesting to look back a year from now.