There were three storylines from MWC23 this week that got my attention:
The complexity of a cloud-native 5G core
Broader tech on display
The great energy pricing shock
They all add up to one bottom line, monetize 5G or go home. What I mean by that is Telcos may go in a very different direction if they cannot monetize 5G, up to and including merging with power utilities.
The complexity of a cloud-native 5G core
One network operator keynote stated that current 5G radio technology is not much of an improvement over 4G, and it will not be until mid-band becomes pervasive. That begs the question, what comes first, mid-band or monetizing 5G to fund the mid-band deployments?
Enter cloud-native 5G core / stand-alone 5G. Cloud-native is complex for everyone. This slows down the move to a 5G core that unlocks monetization opportunities. Recent announcements of telco-oriented offerings by hyperscalers and of partnerships between hyperscalers and telcos should accelerate this transition.
Capgemini is predicting Telcos are going big on cloud-native transformation in general: Networks on Cloud, a clear advantage.
Broader Tech on Display
If the dizzying array of startups in the 4YFN pavilion was not enough to get your tech interest up, then perhaps hybrid electric hydrogen motorcycles and GPT3-powered robots might do the trick.
While much of what I saw in a brief scan of 4YFN were ideas on 5G monetization (health, education, automobiles, visual imaging, etc.), the latter just created a more generalized tech halo around the show. Neither specific ideas on monetization nor a general tech halo are enough to guarantee 5G can be better monetized, however, better to have both than not.
The Great Energy Price Shock
Multiple European Network Operators reported energy costs doubling as a result of the current conflict in Europe. Doubling energy costs is enough for the subject to get serious attention. European Telcos appear to be investing significant cycles in understanding energy in general and driving efficiencies.
In the process, they have realized Energy infrastructure and Telecom infrastructure have much in common. Both are critical infrastructure, dependent on each other, and cyber warfare targets. Could they both one day have a common purpose, especially if 5G cannot be better monetized?
Another by-product of the energy price shock is the accelerating decommissioning of 3G as it is less energy efficient than 5G. Could this free up spectrum for other improvements?
Other
The saber-rattling between Telcos and OTTs during MWC Keynotes was entertaining and sometimes creative, but on balance, I suspect it is a distraction. I would be surprised if regulators do anything too radical, despite the recent call for consultation on network fees. At the heart of these issues is the radical disruption first caused by IP networks that support such a wide scope of applications/services, which laid the foundation for what is currently playing out. Both OTTs and Telcos have some fine lines to walk when it comes to regulatory intervention.
Conclusion
It is easy to say 5G has been disappointing. Of course, it is also possible to argue that 5G has not been delivered yet: pervasive mid-band and cloud-native edge/core. According to Capgemini and also implied by hyerscaler/telco partnerships, cloud transformation is on the agenda. Pervasive mid-band? Not clear when.
And what if 5G cannot be better monetized? Well, that might lead to some surprising evolution paths for Telecom.
You know what money *should* be? Energy. Exactly electricity.
At present the strike price would be $0.13 (13 cents) a KwH, reasonably $.10 or 10KwH Dollar.
Some value and sanity needs to be restored to money in any case.
As far as “the Cloud” being less costly than the physical infrastructure it exists on...🤔
As far as The Cloud, there’s no cloud that’s someone else’s computer.